Adjuvant Therapy for Resectable Pancreatic Cancer: A Simple Prediction Rule

J. K. Smith, S. C. Ng, J. P. Simons, Z. Zhou, S. A. Shah, T. P. McDade, J. F. Tseng, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Surgical Outcomes Analysis and Research, Worcester, MA

Instructions
Follow the steps below to calculate the risk of a patient not being able to complete adjuvant therapy following a pancreatic resection for cancer.

Step 1. Calculate Charlson comorbidity score
Indicate "yes" for the comorbidities that the patient has. This validated algorithm (Charlson, ME et al. J Chron Dis 1987; 40(5):373-83.) assigns a point value to the various diseases. The patient's raw score will then be reassigned into the collapsed Charlson score groups for use in the risk score calculation. Group 1 is a score of zero, Group 2 is a score of 1 or 2, Group 3 is a score of 3 or higher.  

Fig. 1: Risk of not receiving adjuvant therapy

As demonstrated in the above graph, as the risk score increases, the probability that the patient does not receive adjuvant therapy also increases.